👋 Hey, let’s get into it. For 16 years, oncology wore the pipeline crown like it owned the place. Now, it’s been dethroned by people trying to fit back into old jeans.

Deloitte’s latest report says obesity has officially surpassed cancer as the biggest contributor to biopharma pipeline value. Drugs targeting obesity and diabetes now represent an estimated 38% of projected commercial inflows from the 2025 late-stage pipeline.

That’s a massive opportunity... and a reminder that pharma is increasingly betting billions on fewer mega-winners. Great when it works. Painful when it doesn’t.

💊 Lilly’s New Weight Loss Pill Hits 20,000 Patients Fast
Eli Lilly says more than 20,000 patients have started Foundayo since its April 9 launch. Even more notable, 80% of prescriptions came from patients new to GLP-1 drugs, suggesting pills may expand the market instead of merely stealing injectable users. Telehealth platforms already represent about 35% of volume, while LillyDirect drove another 45%. Lilly also hasn’t begun full-scale consumer advertising yet. Meanwhile, first-quarter revenue hit $19.8 billion, up 56% year-over-year, prompting Lilly to raise full-year guidance to $82 billion to $85 billion.

💰 UCB Drops $2B to Chase Autoimmune T-Cell Gold Rush
UCB agreed to acquire Candid Therapeutics for $2 billion upfront plus milestones, grabbing a biotech built around autoimmune T-cell engagers. Lead asset cizutamig targets BCMAxCD3 and aims to replicate CAR-T style immune resets with an off-the-shelf antibody. Candid had only recently announced a reverse merger with Rallybio, making this a very short-lived public company plan. Autoimmune remains one of biotech’s hottest deal zones, and UCB clearly didn’t feel like waiting in line.

✅ Pfizer and Arvinas Win Breast Cancer Approval
Pfizer and Arvinas won FDA approval for Veppanu, a treatment for certain ESR1-mutated ER-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer patients after endocrine therapy. The drug is the first approved therapy built on targeted protein degradation, a strategy that tags disease-driving proteins for destruction inside cells. That approach, known as PROTACs, has long been one of biotech’s most watched experimental platforms. The approval is a major scientific milestone for Arvinas and the broader field. Slightly awkward timing: the companies are still looking for a third-party commercialization partner after earlier data left Wall Street wanting more.

⚖️ FDA’s Biologics Office Gets a New Leader…Temporarily
Vinay Prasad officially departed as head of CBER, ending one of the more contentious recent FDA leadership runs. Deputy Katherine Szarama now takes over as acting director while the agency searches for a permanent replacement in coming weeks. Prasad’s tenure included clashes over Sarepta’s Elevidys, rare disease rejections, and accusations of inconsistent standards. Biopharma will be watching closely to see whether the next era brings faster approvals, steadier policy, or simply quieter headlines.

💉 Amgen Wants Monthly Obesity Convenience
MariTide’s phase 3 switch study aims to move weekly GLP-1 users onto four to six injections per year.

💰 Moderna Beats Revenue Estimates, Still Burns Cash
Q1 revenue hit $389 million, but a $1.3 billion quarterly loss showed litigation costs still bite.

🏦 Esperion Gets $1.1B Exit
Healthcare investor Archimed will take Esperion private in a deal tied partly to future sales milestones.

🪓 J&J Cuts Two CAR-T Programs
Johnson & Johnson shelved two lymphoma CAR-T assets once forecast for multibillion-dollar peak sales.

📈 Celcuity Tops Novartis in Phase 3 Breast Cancer Study
Gedatolisib beat Novartis’ Piqray regimen in breast cancer, sending shares sharply higher.

📉 Summit Shares Slide 25%
A surprise interim miss in ivonescimab’s Harmoni-3 study rattled one of oncology’s hottest names.

🚫 AstraZeneca’s Breast Cancer Drug Stumbles
FDA advisers voted 6-3 against camizestrant, an oral SERD, dealing an early blow to AstraZeneca’s $5 billion blockbuster hopes.

🖖 Merck’s Growth Story Splits
Winrevair sales rose 12%, while Ohtuvayre fell 26%, complicating Merck’s search for post-Keytruda growth drivers.

Wall Street spent months assuming Eli Lilly would dominate obesity pills the same way it surged past Novo Nordisk in injections. Novo apparently missed that memo.

Since launching in January, Novo’s Wegovy pill has posted a stronger-than-expected start, forcing investors to rethink the oral GLP-1 pecking order. Telehealth provider LifeMD said new patient volume doubled almost overnight, jumping from roughly 300–400 daily signups to 600–1,000. Tens of thousands of patients have already started the pill, with most new to the GLP-1 category. Novo’s early success has upended expectations from analysts who assumed the Danish giant would trail its U.S. rival in pills, just as it did in injectables.

The setup changed last summer when Lilly reported Foundayo delivered about 12% average weight loss. Novo quickly counterpunched by spotlighting oral semaglutide data showing nearly 17% weight loss in a separate trial. Then it stacked the launch: a $149 monthly entry price, subway ads, TV spots, telehealth partnerships, and even DJ Khaled in a Super Bowl campaign.

The bigger story may be market expansion. Pills are attracting patients who feared needles or couldn’t stomach injectable prices. Telehealth platforms say pills are being chosen by a huge margin over shots, and more men are entering the category than before, even if women still make up most users. Turns out consumers enjoy the convenience of a pill. Shocking, we know.

Lilly is hardly out of it. Foundayo launched last month and already topped 20,000 patients, with more than 1,000 starts per day. But unlike Novo, Lilly must build awareness for a brand separate from Zepbound. Analysts say wait two or three months before judging momentum, and maybe a year or two before declaring a winner. Remember: Zepbound overtook Wegovy scripts within six months despite launching two years later.

Next catalyst: Novo earnings Wednesday, when investors get the first real scorecard for Wegovy pill momentum.

Read the full story

That’s the estimated impact from Samsung Biologics’ ongoing union strike. More than 2,800 workers have joined the company’s first general strike, proving even CDMO giants are not immune to labor turbulence.

Here’s what biotech Redditors are talking about:

💸 Lilly’s Obesity Gold Rush: Bubble or Just Beginning?
Redditors debated whether Lilly’s surge from roughly $28B revenue a few years ago toward projected $90B territory is sustainable or peak hype. Some argued generic semaglutide and pricing pressure will flatten growth sooner than bulls expect. Others said next-gen drugs and patent defenses could extend the party. Consensus: everyone has a confident timeline, nobody has proof.

🧬 The $100 Genome Sounds Great... What’s the Catch?
Redditors reacted to claims that whole human genome sequencing fell from roughly $100 million in 2000 to around $100 today. The main question was simple: where can you actually buy that deal? Many said rock-bottom pricing likely comes from startups eager to monetize your data. Industry veterans added sequencing was always a race to the bottom, especially after Illumina lost its near-monopoly grip on sequencing economics.

🛳️ Hantavirus Hits Cruise Ship
Seven cases were identified aboard a luxury vessel near West Africa after multiple deaths and evacuations.

⚖️ SCOTUS Restores Mifepristone Access
The Supreme Court temporarily reinstated online prescribing and mail access to the abortion pill.

🦌 Colossal Bio Wants the Bluebuck Back
The de-extinction startup now aims to revive an antelope species lost in the 1700s.

🏭 Amgen Adds $300M More to Puerto Rico
Its Juncos expansion pushes recent U.S. manufacturing commitments close to $2 billion.

🧫 Paterna Biosciences Grows Human Sperm in a Lab
Utah-based Paterna says it successfully created human sperm through in vitro spermatogenesis, then used it to create embryos in early testing. If validated, the platform could help men with severe infertility and future cancer patients who lose fertility before puberty. It is early, unverified, ethically complex science. It is also potentially a massive reproductive medicine breakthrough.

🦠 May 5, 2023 — WHO Ends COVID’s Emergency Phase
After 1,221 days, the World Health Organization ended COVID-19’s status as a global health emergency. It did not declare the virus gone, only that the highest alarm level had passed. The aftermath remained enormous: millions dead, economies shaken, and public health permanently changed by the crisis.

On this day in 2023, the COVID emergency was declared over. On this day in 2026, a hantavirus cruise story reminded everyone that nature loves a sequel.

Note to self: avoid cruise ships, buffets, and at all costs avoid a cruise ship buffet.

That’s all for today. See you Thursday for the next issue. 👋

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